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Gartner: Горещите телеком тенденции за 2016 г.

Networkworld България - брой 1, 2016 г. / Телеком инфраструктура
Според Gartner, програмируемите мрежи и мрежови функции влизат във фокуса на операторите наред с шумно обсъждани технологии като LTE-U, 5G и облачни RAN малки клетки.
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Кои са най-горещите технологични тенденции при телеком операторите през тази година? Според Ян Кийн, вицепрезидент на Gartner, това са мобилните мрежи, работещи едновременно в лицензен и нелицензен (най-често WiFi) спектър, базирани на технологии под шапката на т.нар. LTE-U, развитието на 5G мрежи, облачно базираните системи за радиодостъп тип малки клетки, както и създаването на мрежи за Интернет на нещата (IoT). Голяма част от тези технологии тепърва ще се развиват, като хоризонтът на внедряване на 5G например е едва след 3-4 г. В същото време технологиите за програмируемо базирани мрежи и за виртуализация на редица мрежови функции вече могат да се похвалят с редица пилотни проекти, а вече са налице и първите реални внедрявания в големи телекоми.

Ян Кийн, вицепрезидент на Gartner

SDN&NFV изискват наличие на нова ИТ архитектура при операторите, обяснява Кийн. - Освен това те трябва да се справят със сериозното увеличаване на броя мобилни устройства в корпоративното пространство.“ Според него, развитието на пазара, фокусиран върху приложенията, включително нарастващото значение на софтуера, изисква от мобилните оператори да създадат нови цифрови оферти, обединяващи приложения и повсеместен масово достъпен мобилен интернет достъп. „Телекомите ще трябва да наемат повече специалисти със софтуерни и ИТ умения. Разрастващата се употреба на мобилни приложения ще продължи да ерозира традиционните приходи от гласови и SMS услуги, освен това на пазара ще излязат и нови конкуренти, фокусирани именно върху новите източници на приходи“, смята Кийн.

Прочетете още: NetEvents обяви наградите за облачни иновации 2016

Друга отчетлива промяна се случва при големите корпоративни потребители. Цифровата трансформация на техния бизнес ще принуди и техните доставчици на комуникационни услуги да се променят, в противен случай ще ги загубят като клиенти, коментира анализаторът от Gartner. “Това означава вътрешна трансформация на цялата компания, на търговците на комуникационни услуги, както и по-добро управление на иновациите в самите телекоми“, обяснява Кийн.


Какви са ключовите пазарни сегменти,

които ще са едновременно доходоносни и с голям темп на развитие в периода 2014 – 2019 г.? Според Gartner, при услугите за крайни потребители най-голям ръст ще има при свързаността само за данни (т.е. мобилни абонаменти за таблети и лаптопи), които в момента са с обем около $69 млрд. По-скромно ще е увеличението на пазара на платена телевизия, но неговият обем е много по-голям – около $319 млрд., като само сегментът „Видео по заявка“ ще нарасне с над 20% годишно. В бизнес сегмента най-печеливши и бързорастящи ще са облачните инфраструктурни услуги (IaaS) с близо 35% средногодишен темп до 2019 г. и средно 15% печалба ($49,9 млрд. към 2014 г.). Другите перспективни телеком услуги ще са М2М комуникациите ($23,9 млрд. и над 25% марж на печалба), както и аутсорсингът на защитни услуги и управлявана сигурност (над 15% средногодишен темп при обем около $26,9 млрд.). ИТ бизнес консултациите ще продължат да са силно печеливш бизнес, макар че темпът на растеж да е в рамките на 5% годишно за прогнозния период.

Новата модерна дума, описваща процесите в мрежите на операторите, вече не е SDN или NFV, а


LSO (или Lifecycle Service Orchestration),

т.е. оркестриране на услугата през целия й жизнен цикъл. Този термин ще има огромно влияние не само върху телекомите, а и върху корпоративните клиенти.

Lifecycle Service Orchestration обхваща редица дейности, изпълнявани от операторите или другите доставчици на комуникационни услуги. Платформа LSO би управлява всичко – от предоставянето на заявката от потребителя до контрола на предоставената услуга, събиране на метриките и осигуряване на гарантираните нива на производителност, както и коригиране на грешките, създаване на доклади за степента на използване и свързаните с това анализи, ползвани от потребителите, обяснява Кевин Машон, СОО на индустриалната група Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF).

Очаква се пазарното въздействие на LSO услугите да нарасне значително, като прогноза от март 2015 г. показва, че до 2019 г. LSO пазарът ще достигне $2,75 милиарда и ще комбинира технологии, които днес откриваме в OSS системите, SDN мрежите и NFV решенията. В доклада на Rayno пише още, че „глобалните доставчици на услуги търсят софтуер, който да интегрира оркестрирането, контрола, производителността, използваемостта, анализите, сигурността и правилата за ползване на корпоративните мрежови услуги. Този софтуер трябва да е базиран на отворени и съвместими стандарти“, добавят авторите на доклада.

И така LSO е следващата оперативна платформа на операторите. Но какво означава тя за предприятията?

Въпреки протичащата през последното десетилетие революция в мрежите като навлизането на Carrier Ethernet и SDN, все още на телекомите е трудно да дефинират услуги, а още по-трудно е на потребителите да ги сравняват. Освен това, когато корпоративните клиенти са готови да купуват, операторите често не могат да предоставят нищо друго освен традиционната пропусквателна способност на връзката.

„Доста коси на ИТ директори в предприятията са побелели, когато искат нещо малко по-сложно, например защитена мрежа, която обхваща няколко оператора на трансгранична свързаност, комуникация с няколко облачни доставчика, като тази мрежа съответства и на регулаторните изисквания, и на тези на мобилните служители. Освен това потребителите искат подробна ценова разбивка, анализи в реално време, отчетност за нивото на обслужване, както и известна степен на контрол върху услугата“, обясняват от MEF.

Именно индустриалният консорциум Metro Ethernet Forum е една от организациите зад LSO, включвайки го в своята инициатива „Третата мрежа“, обявена миналия септември. Тази инициатива е изградена върху спецификациите на MEF за Carrier Ethernet 2.0, разработени за разширяване обхвата на услугата, клас на услугата, ориентиран към приложенията, характеристики като управляемост и интерконекция. Третата мрежа предоставя и функции за оркестриране на услугата, API интерфейси, информационен модел за „мрежа като услуга“ (NaaS), независещ от използваните протоколи, както дефиниране на услугата между физически и виртуални крайни точки.

Кевин Вашон, главен оперативен директор на индустриалната организация Metro Ethernet Forum (MEF), добавя, че предоставянето на свързващи услуги ще става гъвкаво и автоматизирано. „Продаването на бекхол линия за големи събития като американския финал Super Bowl, ще става навреме и в точното количество, а след приключване на събитието мрежовият капацитет ще бъде пренасочен автоматично към други ресурси“, обяснява Вашон. MEF създава рамката, която дава възможност на операторите да предоставят такива услуги, сваляйки и оперативните, и капиталовите разходи, допълни той.

„Интернет на нещата ще постави много предприятия в ситуация да обслужват все по-голям брой устройства, генериращи по-малко трафик, но изискващи повече услуги, коментира Фил Тили, старши продуктов маркетинг директор за NFV и CloudBand решения в Nokia. - Именно в този случай LSO и самообслужване на потребителите ще играят много важна роля“, добавя той.

„OSS системите са стратегически актив за бизнеса на всеки оператор. Но освен технологична промяна в тези системи има нужда от промяна и в задачите на хората в компанията. Нужни са повече софтуерни инженери, по-малко мрежови инженери. SDN частта трябва да е свързана с бизнес системите на оператора“, допълва Камай Окба, директор в Maroc Telecom.

(31.03.2016)

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